El lugar virtual que precede a la acción
el tiempo es juez implacable y aunque huye en un perpetuo movimiento es bueno rememorar lo antiguo para comparar las hipótesis e intuiciones con la realidad que emerge de entre esas aguas de tiempo cargada
pasen
pasen y lean
https://observarypensar.blogspot.com/2023/11/el-reloj-ruso-observacion-del-ano-2014.html
igor en Burgos pronto ya a enfocar observación ("flash") al escenario asiático, del que en europa somos su extensión occidental.
Almost two month ago I proposed as a probable analogue to the Palestinian-Israel war the Algerian war of independence, which was based on the massive arrival of french people to a territory occupied in a continuous way by local muslims.
A long trail, more than one hundred years, toward the independence began as soon as the french arrived. The western technology, mostly in agriculture and coommunications, the inclusion of those african territories within international markets, and a long "etcaetera" did not convince the local population about the benefits derived from such colonial move, installing not muslims within the land.
As a main composant of this analogy it appears the concept and the practice of an athenian-like democracy blessing the non local inhabitants. This fact did not brought the arab people to really share that partial democratic system with the french. A violent situation installed both in material and symbolic daily actions: only in the deep fantasies of french there were fair relationships between christians and muslims.
Once the algerian independence war began in 1956 many and frequent violent fights between the french army and the local guerrilla marked the path to the final independence. For the sake of our analogy let me focus on the battle for the Cashba of Alger, quite well documented by the Pontecorvo´s film "La bataille d´Alger". That particular battle, lasting several months, was finally won by the french in a forceful manner, nevertheless it happened to the winers such as they have already experienced in Vietnam: from victory to victory to final defeat. The strategic analysis of the international scenario made by De Gaulle was highly smart: he clearly saw in the moving international scenario that the main axis of geopolitic tension was not the Mediterranean one.
Right now, it seems to me that the geostrategical tensors are moving in a seemingly slow manner from the Mare Nostrum to the Eurasian continent, not being another regional conflict (Russia-Ukraina) the main american issue.
Thus, on one side the main regional actor in both regional conflicts, USA (who has spent more than 300 billion dollars in Israel), quiete probably will concentrate upon its main geopolitical problem. On the other side, Israel victories have not guaranteed longstanding peace nor with Palestinians neither with its neighbourhood. Moreover, there is a growing feeling in Israel that this surprinsingly long battle for the total control in Gaza it is not a clear victory even though Tsahal is going to accomplish its final goal erasing the presence of the muslim guerrilla.
To end to this analogy let me point out that the total victory in Alger led directly to De Gaulle´s strategical decision to stop the war.
igor parra wrote it on April the 7th 2024 in Burgos